Introduction
The latest opinion poll by Afrobarometer/MPOI read together with the poll released by the Elite Africa Research show that the 2023 presidential election is a battle for political and economic transition. From the two polls Zimbabweans across the political divide yearn for a significant politico-economic shift as a means to that end. As indicated in the latest Elite Africa Research opinion polls, President Emmerson Mnangagwa is faced with an imminent electoral punishment. This looming electoral punishment is an outcome of the failures and shortcomings of Mnangagwa’s leadership, which have left a trail of disappointment and disillusionment among the Zimbabwean populace judging from respondents perceptions on economic management and the general direction of the country under Mnangagwa’s stewardship. Equally so, the opposition CCC’s electoral performance from the Afrobarometer/MPOI especially its decline in support from the June 2022 poll of 6% points to a lot of hard work ahead of the poll.
Economic Mismanagement
One of the primary reasons for Mnangagwa’s possible imminent electoral punishment revealed by the two survey reports is his failure to address the deep-rooted economic crisis gripping the nation. Despite promises of economic reform and revitalization, Zimbabwe’s economy continued to deteriorate under his watch. Rampant annual inflation of 982%, widespread unemployment, and a crumbling national infrastructure are glaring indications of his inability to provide sustainable economic growth and stability for the country. The Afrobarometer and MPOI opinion poll revealed that a large majority (69%) say the country’s economic condition is fairly bad/very bad. This is corroborated by the findings of Elite Africa Research survey which reveal that the majority (77.5%) of citizens think the country’s economy is getting worse. In terms of the country’s direction, the Afrobarometer and MPOI survey indicated that nearly two thirds of Zimbabweans (65%) say the country is going in the wrong direction and the Elite Africa Research opinion poll again showed a large majority (69.4%) of registered voters who think the country is heading in the wrong direction. As a result, these two opinion polls speak in one voice that citizens are dissatisfied by President Mnangagwa’s failure to steer the country in the right direction.
Corruption and Lack of Accountability
Another critical factor contributing to Mnangagwa’s possible electoral punishment is his inability to tackle endemic corruption within the government and public institutions. Zimbabwe scored 23 points out of 100 and ranked 157 out of 180 countries on the 2022 Corruption Perceptions. Despite pledges to fight corruption, little progress has been made, and high-profile individuals implicated in corruption scandals have been often shielded from accountability. Examples include former government ministers Prisca Mupfumira and Obadiah Moyo and ZANU-PF legislator for Gokwe – Nembudziya constituency Mayor Justice Wadyajena who went scot-free after they were implicated in corruption scandals. The Afrobarometer and MPOI survey indicates that 45% of the respondents disapprove or strongly disapprove Mnangagwa’s performance. This lack of action eroded public trust and reinforced the perception that Mnangagwa’s administration has been more interested in self-preservation than serving the interests of the Zimbabwean people. This is not a good perception for a candidate seeking a second term after narrowly escaping defeat in his first election in 2018 where he got 50.8% of the total votes cast to Chamisa’s 44.3%.
Suppression of Dissent and Human Rights Abuses
Mnangagwa’s presidency in the past 5 years has been marred by a disturbing crackdown on dissent and blatant human rights abuses. Zimbabwe on Freedom House (2022)’s political rights and civil liberties ratings scored 28 out of 100 and was regarded as a not free country. The government’s heavy-handed response to protests and the stifling of freedom of expression and assembly have only served to further alienate the populace. Reports of arbitrary arrests and detention of opposition members such as Job Sikhala and Jacob Ngarivhume, torture of children during the January 2019 protests, and intimidation of opposition figures and civil society activists have created an atmosphere of fear and repression. This has undermined the democratic ideals that Zimbabweans had hoped for under Mnangagwa’s leadership following the military overthrow of Mugabe in November 2017. This makes sense of the 27% polled citizens who opted not to disclose their preferred candidate and the 59% who expressed fear of becoming victims of political violence during elections in the Afrobarometer and MPOI survey. Under normal electoral circumstances, the electoral decisions of such a huge number of disappointed citizens will arguably go against Mnangagwa’s bid for the second term.
Failure to Deliver Political Reforms
Mnangagwa’s promises of political reform and a departure from the autocratic rule of his predecessor, Robert Mugabe, have fallen flat. Despite initial rhetoric about fostering a more inclusive and democratic society, Mnangagwa failed to initiate meaningful electoral reforms, leaving the electoral process vulnerable to manipulation and undermining the credibility of the democratic process. The little reforms such as repeal of the undemocratic Public Order and Security Act (POSA) were reversed when the same draconian law was sneaked back through the enactment of Maintenance of Peace and Order Act (MOPA). During this election campaign, the law has been used to block more than seven opposition campaign rallies to date. This failure to deliver on promised reforms only deepened the disillusionment and mistrust among the populace.
Chamisa’s Diminishing Support Base
It is important to take cognisant of Nelson Chamisa’s erosion of support base between June 2022 and July 2023 which points to his possible electoral punishment in the forthcoming 2023 elections. The Afrobarometer/MPOI latest opinion poll reveals a 6% decrease in support for Chamisa since the last survey which was conducted in June 2022. In contrast, Mnangagwa’s support has been on an upward trend during the same period and this is shown by a 5% increase of his support. This indicates a possible electoral punishment for Chamisa by Mnangagwa in the 2023 elections.
Conclusion
President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s possible electoral punishment in Zimbabwe’s 2023 election will be a direct consequence of his failures as a leader. The economic mismanagement, rampant corruption, suppression of dissent, and failure to deliver on political reforms all contributed to a widespread loss of confidence in his administration. The Zimbabwean people, yearning for change and a brighter future, are likely to show their dissatisfaction in the ballot box. However, the declining of Chamisa’s support and popularity indicates a possible electoral punishment by his rival Mnangagwa in the 2023 elections.