The Preliminary Delimitation Report done by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) and the attendant politics have highlighted three key issues peculiar to competitive authoritarian regimes that need to be identified and resolved ahead of 2023. First is the capture of the electoral system by the ruling elite to influence the electoral outcome through gerrymandering, calculated to disorient the main opposition and benefit the ruling party. These include collapsing of constituencies with more registered voters to beef-up constituencies with less registered voters, multiplying constituencies with ZANU PF majorities in Harare to list a few. This paper gives an analysis of the ZEC preliminary delimitation report to underline evidence of this. Second is the elite discohesion within ZANU PF which is identified as a precursor for a possible authoritarian breakdown. This is shown through a sudden discohesion within ZEC and between ZEC and key allies of Mnangagwa affected by the preliminary delimitation. Thirdly, ZEC’s incompetence has been shown by failure to follow constitutional provisions, failure to follow simple arithmetic calculations to determine constituency and ward delimitation and the lack of consultation of key stakeholders. Fundamentally, the botched delimitation report speaks to infighting within the ruling party elites. It is a continuation of the post-coup and post-2022 ZANU PF congress – the unresolved ZANU PF leadership question post-Mugabe. Our view is that, the delimitation report generally and overall benefits ZANU PF as a political party but disadvantages one faction in the power matrix and configuration of the securocratic state.
